After a very long pause, I'm back with my predictions for the Oscar nominations. You can tune in to the E! channel at 5:30 a.m. PST on Tuesday, Jan. 22 (tomorrow) to evaluate my Nostradamity.
Best PictureI predict:
- Atonement
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Juno
- Michael Clayton
- No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood did very well with the critics, but I think it might be too dark and violent for some Academy voters. I suspect that the more inspiring
Diving Bell will grab that fifth spot. The only sure thing on this list is is
No Country; any of the others could be bumped out by
Blood,
Into the Wild,
Sweeney Todd, or (if the goddess smiles)
I'm Not There.
If I ruled the Academy:
- The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
- Away from Her
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- I'm Not There
- There Will Be Blood
Best ActressI predict:
- Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
- Ellen Page, Juno
- Julie Christie, Away from Her
- Laura Linney, The Savages
- Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
As always, this is my favorite category. I hope and expect that the voters will recognize Laura Linney's stunning work in
The Savages instead of the throwaway performance of the great Cate Blanchett in
Elizabeth: The Golden Age. I adore Cate, but even she could barely keep from giggling through that atrociously trite script.
If I ruled the Academy:
- Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
- Julie Christie, Away from Her
- Laura Linney, The Savages
- Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
- Molly Shannon, Year of the Dog
Best ActorI predict:
- Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
- Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
- George Clooney, Michael Clayton
- Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
- Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Viggo Mortensen has plenty of buzz for his balls-out performance in
Eastern Promises, but I think he will be a surprise omission here. I'm looking for voters to go with the likable Ryan Gosling, even though he smirked through
Lars and was out-classed by his luminous co-star, Emily Mortimer. Denzel Washington (American Gangster) is an Academy favorite and has a slim chance to jump in ahead of Langella, Gosling or Depp. Another potential spoiler is the delectable Emile Hirsch in
Into the Wild.
If I ruled the Academy:
- Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
- Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
- Gordon Pinsent, Away from Her
- Mathieu Amalric, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages
Best Supporting ActressI predict:
- Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
- Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
- Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
- Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
- Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
This is probably a dumb pick, but I think Vanessa Redgrave has a good shot for a surprise nomination here. Her screen time in
Atonement is brief, but she is devastating. Ruby Dee may take the fifth spot instead for her lucky grandma in
American Gangster. Redgrave's young co-star, Saoirse Ronan, also has a shot.
If I ruled the Academy:
- Allison Janney, Juno
- Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
- Marcia Gay Harden, The Mist
- Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
- Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Best Supporting ActorI predict:
- Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
- Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
- Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
- Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
A big show of support for
Diving Bell could push Max von Sydow into this group, perhaps ahead of Hoffman. Tommy Lee Jones could sneak in alongside Bardem for his world-weary sheriff in
No Country.
If I ruled the Academy:
- Ahmad Khan Mahmizada, The Kite Runner
- Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
- Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
- Philip Bosco, The Savages
- Vincent Cassel, Eastern Promises
Best DirectorI predict:
- Joe Wright, Atonement
- Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
- Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
- Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Tony Gilroy has a good shot for directing the widely-admired
Michael Clayton, but I think voters will reward Anderson instead for his unique vision, even if the film itself was too much for them to handle. A wild card here is the veteran director Sidney Lumet, who surprised everyone this year with his excellent crime drama
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead.
If I ruled the Academy:
- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
- Robert Rodriguez and Quentin Tarantino, Grindhouse
- Sarah Polley, Away from Her
- Sean Penn, Into the Wild
- Todd Haynes, I'm Not There
Best Original ScreenplayI predict:
- Brad Bird and Jan Pinkava, Ratatouille
- Diablo Cody, Juno
- Kelly Masterson, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
- Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
- Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Nancy Oliver has a shot for her clever-but-corny
Lars and the Real Girl. I will be extremely upset if the Academy fails to recognize the brave, pitch-perfect work of Tamara Jenkins this year.
If I ruled the Academy:
- Diablo Cody, Juno
- Mike White, Year of the Dog
- Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
- Todd Haynes and Owen Moverman, I'm Not There
- Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola and Jason Schwartzman, The Darjeeling Limited
Best Adapted ScreenplayI predict:
- Christopher Hampton, Atonement
- Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
- Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Aaron Sorkin has a shot for the fast-paced script of
Charlie Wilson's War, but I think the voters will dismiss him as a lowly TV writer, albeit one of the best. Sarah Polley could nose her way into this category for the spare, delicate script of
Away from Her.
If I ruled the Academy:
- Andrew Dominik, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
- Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
- Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Sarah Polley, Away from Her
Here's hoping I get at least a few right in each category!
