Monday, January 21, 2019

Predicting the Oscar Nominations



This year's Academy Award nominations will be announced early tomorrow morning!  Here are my predictions for the six top categories, as well as the nominees that I would pick if I were in charge.


Best Actress

Predicted nominees:

·       Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
·       Glenn Close, The Wife
·       Olivia Colman, The Favorite
·       Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
·       Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

I would nominate:

·       Jessie Buckley, Beast
·       Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
·       Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
·       Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
·       Olivia Colman, The Favourite


Best Actor

Predicted nominees:

·       Christian Bale, Vice
·       Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
·       Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
·       Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
·       Viggo Mortenson, Green Book

I would nominate:

·       Christian Bale, Vice
·       Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
·       Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
·       Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
·       Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun


Best Supporting Actress

Predicted nominees:

·       Amy Adams, Vice
·       Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
·       Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
·       Emma Stone, The Favourite
·       Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

I would nominate:

·       Amy Adams, Vice
·       Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
·       Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
·       Emma Stone, The Favourite
·       Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

(yes, the exact same five.)


Best Supporting Actor

Predicted nominees:

·       Mahershala Ali, Green Book
·       Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful boy
·       Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
·       Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
·       Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

I would nominate:

·       Bryan Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
·       Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
·       Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
·       Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
·       Sam Rockwell, Vice


Best Director

Predicted nominees:

·       Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
·       Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
·       Peter Farrelly, Green Book
·       Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
·       Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

I would nominate:

·       Alex Garland, Annihilation
·       Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
·       Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
·       Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
·       Boots Riley, Sorry to Bother You


Best Picture

Predicted nominees:

·       BlacKkKlansman
·       Black Panther
·       Bohemian Rhapsody
·       The Favourite
·       Green Book
·       Roma
·       A Star is Born
·       Vice
·       (if there is a 9th nominee) Cold War
·       (if there is a 10th nominee) If Beale Street Could Talk

I would nominate:

·       Annihilation
·       BlacKkKlansman
·       Boy Erased
·       Can You Ever Forgive Me?
·       The Death of Stalin
·       The Favourite
·       Leave No Trace
·       A Quiet Place
·       Roma
·       Sorry to Bother You



Saturday, March 3, 2018

Jeff's Picks for the Academy Awards!





I’m excited for the Academy Awards on Sunday!  Here are the nominees in each category.  The gold star indicates the nominee that I think will win, and the red heart is for the one I think is most deserving.


BEST PICTURE

·       Call Me by Your Name
·       Darkest Hour
·       ­Dunkirk
·       Get Out
·       Lady Bird
·       Phantom Thread
·       The Post
·       The Shape of Water
·       Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The award could go to The Shape of Water, but I think Three Billboards will prevail.  As for my favorite among the nominees, I liked all nine a lot, but the one that stuck with me the most was Darkest Hour.  My two favorite movies of the year were not nominated: I, Tonya and God’s Own Country. 


DIRECTING

·       Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
·       Jordan Peele, Get Out
·       Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
·       Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
·       Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Guillermo del Toro deserves to win.  But Paul Thomas Anderson is my favorite director of all time, and Phantom Thread is just the latest of his many distinctive achievements.


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

·       Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
·       Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
·       Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
·       Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
·       Meryl Streep, The Post

Tough call between McDormand and Streep, who was extraordinary in The Post.  Robbie was excellent as well.


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

·       Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
·       Allison Janney, I, Tonya
·       Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
·       Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
·       Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

I adore Allison Janney, but Laurie Metcalf had a tougher acting challenge and succeeded gloriously.


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

·       Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
·       Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
·       Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
·       Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
·       Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Lots of people are excited about Chalamet, but I think he was just being his moody teen self.  Oldman blew me away.  Should have been on the list: Josh O’Connor for God’s Own Country.


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

·       Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
·       Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
·       Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
·       Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
·       Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I’ve been a fan of Sam Rockwell for many years.  Glad to see him getting accolades.  Should have been nominated: Ben Mendelsohn for his memorable work as King George VI in Darkest Hour.  Also two actors from Marshall, Sterling K. Brown and Josh Gad.  And what about Michael Shannon, terrifying in The Shape of Water?


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

·       Emily Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
·       Jordan Peele, Get Out
·       Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
·       Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
·       Martin MCDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


The scripts for Three Billboards and Get Out are both wildly creative, but both have imperfections.  The Lady Bird script is perfect.    Ruben Östlund deserved recognition here for his wildly original and biting script for The Square.


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

·       James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
·       Scott Neustader and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
·       James Mangold et al, Logan
·       Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
·       Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound

I’m glad that James Ivory will final win an Oscar, but I loved the script for The Disaster Artist.


ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

·       The Boss Baby
·       The Breadwinner
·       Coco
·       Ferdinand
·       Loving Vincent

Didn’t see any of them, but my posse of pre-teen critics loved Coco.


ANIMATED SHORT FILM

·       Dear Basketball
·       Garden Party
·       LOU
·       Negative Space
·       Revolting Rhymes

If people who didn’t bother to watch the shorts voted anyway, Dear Basketball may win.  But the clear winner for both creativity and gorgeous animation is Garden Party.


CINEMATOGRAPHY

·       Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
·       Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
·       Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
·       Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
·       Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
Tough category to predict.  Sentimental favorite is Roger Deakins (Blade Runner), who has never won, but that move was too dark and dull for my taste.  Dunkirk had incredible camerawork.  Where is the nomination for Sayombhu Mukdeeprom for the incredibly beautiful Call Me By Your Name?


COSTUME DESIGN

·       Beauty and the Beast
·       Darkest Hour
·       Phantom Thread
·       The Shape of Water
·       Victoria & Abdul

This one is between Beauty and the Beast and Phantom Thread. 


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

·       Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
·       Faces Places
·       Icarus
·       Last Men in Aleppo
·       Strong Island


DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

·       Edith+Eddie
·       Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
·       Heroin(e)
·       Knife Skills
·       Traffic Stop


FILM EDITING

·       Baby Driver
·       Dunkirk
·       I, Tonya
·       The Shape of Water
·       Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Baby Driver might steal this one.


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

·       A Fantastic Woman
·       The Insult
·       Loveless
·       On Body and Soul
·       The Square


MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

·       Darkest Hour
·       Victoria & Abdul
·       Wonder


ORIGINAL SCORE

·       Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
·       Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
·       Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
·       John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
·       Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


ORIGINAL SONG

·       “Mighty River,” Mudbound
·       “Mystery Of Love,” Call Me by Your Name
·       “Remember Me,” Coco
·       “Stand Up For Something,” Marshall
·       “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

Great category!  I really don’t know which song will win.  All five are fantastic.


PRODUCTION DESIGN

·       Beauty and the Beast
·       Blade Runner 2049
·       Darkest Hour
·       Dunkirk
·       The Shape of Water

For the underwater opening credits, the bathroom flooding, the blackened finger, and so much more!


LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

·       DeKalb Elementary
·       The Eleven O'Clock
·       My Nephew Emmett
·       The Silent Child
·       Watu Wote (All of Us)

A very strong group of nominees.  My Nephew Emmett is my second favorite mainly because it features the fabulous Jasmine Guy. 


SOUND EDITING

·       Baby Driver
·       Blade Runner 2049
·       Dunkirk
·       The Shape of Water
·       Star Wars: The Last Jedi


SOUND MIXING

·       Baby Driver
·       Blade Runner 2049
·       Dunkirk
·       The Shape of Water
·       Star Wars: The Last Jedi


VISUAL EFFECTS

·       Blade Runner 2049
·       Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
·       Kong: Skull Island
·       Star Wars: The Last Jedi
·       War for the Planet of the Apes