Predictions for the Academy Awards

Here are my brash predictions for Sunday night. The star icon denotes my predicted winner; the heart indicates the one I like the most.


Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
  
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn ♥
• Rooney Mara, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
• Viola Davis, The Help★

It's a tight race between Streep and Davis. I'm giving the edge to Davis since her movie received the better overall reception. Streep's performance is a tremendous achievement, but this year my heart goes to Michelle Williams for her beautiful, subtle work as Marilyn Monroe. Should have been nominated: Anna Paquin, startling as a (psychopathic?) student who witnesses a fatal bus accident in Margaret, and Charlize Theron for her daring turn as an emotionally stunted, morally bankrupt, and deeply depressed author of tween fiction in Young Adult. I also loved Adepero Oduye, believable and inspiring in the lead role of Pariah.


Best Actor

• Brad Pitt, Moneyball ♥
• Demian Bichir, A Better Life
  
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
  
• George Clooney, The Descendants
  
• Jean Dujardin, The Artist★

Dujardin will win, I'm afraid. I'm basing this prediction in part on the bizarre Best Actor victory of fellow wackadoo foreigner Roberto Benigni for 1997's Life is Beautiful. Benigni's win over Ian McKellen (Gods and Monsters) stands among the greatest injustices in the history of the Oscars. Dujardin's triumph will mean that the Academy will have missed the chance to recognize career-best performances from America's two biggest movie stars, George Clooney and Brad Pitt. Clooney has never been more vulnerable and relatable than in the wonderful Descendants. Pitt pulled off the amazing feat of bringing heart, complexity, and beauty to a movie about statistics. Should have been nominated: Matt Damon, adorable as the optimistic widower in the charming We Built A Zoo. What a fantastic year for American actors! We easily could have filled out this entire category with Americans like Woody Harrelson in Rampart, Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar, and Michael Shannon in Take Shelter.


Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Descendants ★ ♥
• Hugo
• The Ides of March
• Moneyball
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
  

Moneyball's script is very strong, but Alexander Payne has achieved near-perfection with his Descendants screenplay.


Best Director

• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
  
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo
  
• Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist ★
• Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life ♥
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
  

Both Hazanavicius and Scorsese took viewers back into the glorious history of cinema. Scorsese is a potential spoiler, but Hugo is harmed by its "kids' movie" tag, so I think Hazanavicius will win here. As for my heart, there's no question: Terrence Malick is so far and above all other contenders in terms of creativity and ambition. Tree of Life isn't perfect (I could have done without all the whispering), but it's the most challenging and exhilarating film I can remember. Should have been nominated: Lars von Trier, Melancholia; Dee Rees, Pariah.


Best Original Screenplay

• The Artist
• Bridesmaids
• Margin Call
  
• Midnight in Paris ★
• A Separation ♥

This category is the Academy's best chance to honor Woody Allen. I would be much happier with a win for A Separation. Writer/director Asghar Farhadi somehow manages to ensure that each character's viewpoint seems valid, even though the different viewpoints are contradictory. Addressing the dichotomies of wealthy vs. poor, secular vs. religious, well-educated vs. less educated, and more, Farhadi's screenplay is a masterpiece of complex storytelling. Should have been nominated: Dee Rees for Pariah.


Best Picture

• The Artist ★
• The Descendants ♥
• Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
• The Help
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• Moneyball
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

An upset win by The Descendants is possible, but I think The Artist's combination of novelty, nostalgia, and cute puppy bring it the top award. I greatly admired The Tree of Life, which features an amazing supporting performance by Brad Pitt, but my heart has to go to the The Descendants, the only movie that I was compelled to watch three times in the theater this year. Should have been nominated: My Week With Marilyn, Melancholia, Pariah, A Separation.


Best Supporting Actor

• Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn ♥
• Jonah Hill – Moneyball
• Nick Nolte – Warrior
• Christopher Plummer - Beginners ★
• Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

This may be heresy, but I wasn't crazy about Plummer's performance in Beginners. Maybe because I could never wrap my brain around why a handsome and stylish gay man would choose a boyfriend (Goran Viscnic) with the ugliest hair imaginable. Admittedly Plummer was the best thing in an otherwise dull exploration of heterosexual male romantic angst. As for my heart, it's with Kenneth Branagh, delightfully obnoxious as the upright British cinematic icon who is at first dismissive of, then infuriated by, then grudgingly admiring and perhaps even jealous of, the American blond bombshell played by Michelle Williams. Should have been nominated: Robert Forster, The Descendants.


Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist ♥
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
  
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
  
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Octavia Spencer, The Help★

Berenice Bejo is the best thing in The Artist, with the possible exception of the dog. But there is no way that this award will go to anyone but Octavia Spencer, who has been so stunningly beautiful on the various red carpets of this award season. Should have been nominated: Shailene Woodley for The Descendants, far and away my favorite supporting performance of the year. Honorable mention to the amazing Jeannie Berlin in Margaret, and to Kim Wayans, a wonderful surprise as the conflicted mother in Pariah.


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Enjoy the show!

Academy Awards - Reactions

My predictions this year were so-so. My big upset pick (Geoffrey Rush) let me down. But I had a great evening watching the ceremony with friends.


WHAT I LIKED

• Anne Hathaway! So much fun! Breezy, self-assured--a joy to watch.

• David Seidler's wonderful acceptance speech for Original Screenplay.

• Halle Berry's tribute to Lena Horne. And Halle's dress. And Halle in general.

• That King's Speech producer who thanked his husband.

• Florence whatever, singing in Gaelic or whatever. Whatever. Loved it.
  

WHAT I DIDN'T LIKE

• James Franco. Wooden, dull, possibly stoned.

• Hilary Swank's filthy mop dress.

• Christian Bale's hair and beard. As the favorite to win, he knew that he would probably be giving a speech for a billion television viewers, so why didn't he spend five minutes on basic grooming?

• Melissa Leo. Although the dress was nice (kind of interesting, actually), she was obnoxious on stage. I hope we never see her again.

• Sandra Bullock's make-up. She was a pallid, wrinkly mess. But she handled her award-giving duties with panache. How about Sandra for Oscars host next year?
  

Predicting the Oscar Winners

Here are my bold predictions for Sunday night. The star icon denotes my predicted winner; the heart indicates the one I like the most.


Best Actress

• Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
• Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
• Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
• Natalie Portman, Black Swan ★
• Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole ♥

An upset win by Annette Bening (for what is really a lightweight performance) is possible, but the Academy seems to prefer giving this award to younger women. I did not like Natalie Portman's performance in Black Swan, but she is the consensus pick. For me, two nominees stood far above the others: Nicole Kidman and Michelle Williams. Williams outclasses all of her Young-Hollywood peers in her ability to convey deep emotional pain, and her talents are on full display in Blue Valentine. Kidman gives the finest performance of her career as the grieving mother in Rabbit Hole, which deserved, but did not receive, nominations for Best Picture, Director, Actor (Aaron Eckhardt), Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Art Direction.


Best Actor

• Colin Firth, The King's Speech ★ ♥
• James Franco, 127 Hours
  
• Javier Bardem, Biutiful
• Jeff Bridges, True Grit
• Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Colin Firth is mesmerizing and utterly believable as the monarch working to overcome his stutter. Next best in this category is Jesse Eisenberg, with his rapid-fire delivery and scary intensity. I enjoyed James Franco's performance, but the role lacked depth. Jeff Bridges brings unexpected humor to the otherwise-flat True Grit, but he isn't really the lead character in the film. I haven't seen Biutiful yet; I hear that Javier Bardem gives a great performance but that the movie drags a bit.


Best Adapted Screenplay

• 127 Hours
• The Social Network ★ ♥
• Toy Story 3
  
• True Grit
  
• Winter's Bone

The key to the effectiveness of The Social Network is its amazing screenplay by Aaron Sorkin. Melding Shakespearean tragedy with ultra-contemporary dialogue and themes, Sorkin provides the framework that gives the film its powerful impact. Winter's Bone tells a story that we have never seen before, and its nomination here is well-deserved.

The formal dialogue of the True Grit screenplay may have been true to its source material, but it made the whole movie seem a bit pretentious and ultimately flat. The True Grit screenplay sorely needed more of the Coen brothers' usual quirkiness. I'm really surprised that it made the nominee list at all, when there were any number of superior adapted screenplays in the running: The Ghost Writer, Rabbit Hole, and I Love You Phillip Morris, to name a few.


Best Animated Feature

• How to Train Your Dragon ♥
• The Illusionist
  
• Toy Story 3 ★

I'm not a fan of animation generally. I have only seen one of the three nominated movies: The Illusionist, which I found to be dull both in palette and in story. The Toy Story movies strike me as a bit cloying, so I'm giving my heart to the universally well-reviewed How to Train Your Dragon.


Best Animated Short

• Day & Night ★
• The Gruffalo ♥
• Let's Pollute
  
• The Lost Thing
• Madagascar, carnet de voyage

Haven't seen any of them. I've heard that Madagascar is filled with beautiful colors but that Day & Night is a first-class Pixar production. My heart goes to Gruffalo based only on the name.


Best Art Direction

• Alice in Wonderland ♥
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I
• Inception
  
• The King's Speech ★
• True Grit
  

This is a difficult category to predict. Inception could certainly win, as could or The King's Speech or Alice. I would have nominated Black Swan for that amazing apartment (the pink bedroom! the mother's art studio!). I think The King's Speech had beautiful sets that seemed authentic, so it is likely to win here, though Alice was more visually interesting and creative.


Best Cinematography

• Black Swan ♥
• Inception
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
  
• True Grit ★

True Grit is the likely winner--voters love grand landscapes--but I think Black Swan is more deserving. The cinematographer captured the intensity of the physical trauma suffered by the dancers, which helped to set a tone that allowed the film to veer from psychodrama into pure horror. I'm not saying I enjoyed the close-ups of bloody fingernails and implanted wing spurs (I covered my eyes quite a bit), but they were certainly effective.


Best Costume Design

• Alice in Wonderland ♥
• I Am Love
  
• The King's Speech ★
• The Tempest
• True Grit

Historical usually trumps fantasy in this category, so I'm predicting a win for The King's Speech. Where is the nomination for the gorgeous Rodarthe feather costumes in Black Swan?


Best Director

• Darren Aronovsky, Black Swan
  
• David Fincher, The Social Network★ ♥
• David O. Russell, The Fighter
• Ethan and Joel Coen, True Grit
• Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
  

After last year's surprisingly diverse group of nominees (a female winner in Kathryn Bigelow, gay African-American nominee Lee Daniels, and whatever Quentin Tarantino is) we are back to the usual crew of straight white males. Too bad that two deserving female candidates this year didn't make the cut: Debra Granik for Winter's Bone and the fierce lesbian Lisa Cholodenko for The Kids Are All Right. It's very possible that Tom Hooper will win this award, but I think the Academy will go with David Fincher for directing a film that will likely be remembered and respected for many decades.


Best Documentary Feature

• Exit Through the Gift Shop
  
• Gasland ♥
• Inside Job
  
• Restrepo ★
• Waste Land
  

The pundits expect Inside Job to win, which in my opinion would be a terrible outcome. I found Inside Job to be so off-putting that I walked out midway through the movie. I'm told that it got better toward the end. The only other nominated film that I've seen is Gasland, which I loved--I can't get out of my head all those images of people lighting their tap water on fire. I'm predicting an upset win here for the war-themed Restrepo on the theory that at least some of the voters shared my distaste for Inside Job.


Best Documentary Short

• Killing in the Name ♥
• Poster Girl
  
• Strangers No More
  
• Sun Comes Up★
• The Warriors of Qiugang
  

No idea. Wild guess.


Best Film Editing

• 127 Hours
  
• Black Swan
  
• The Fighter
• The King's Speech
  
• The Social Network★ ♥

127 Hours is also deserving, but I think The Social Network will take this award.


Best Foreign Language Film

• Biutiful
  
• Dogtooth
  
• In A Better World★
• Incendies
  
• Outside the Law ♥

Haven't seen any of them yet, though I'm hoping to catch Outside the Law and Biutiful in the next couple of weeks. Biutiful might be a logical choice to win here since Javier Bardem's performance earned a Best Actor nomination. But the Academy requires voters to see all five nominees in order to vote in this category, and I'm told that Biutiful is less enjoyable than the Danish film In A Better World, which won the Golden Globe.


Best Live-Action Short

• The Confession
  
• The Crush
  
• God of Love ★
• Na Wewe
• Wish 143 ♥

I saw all five nominees. All of them had violent elements: guns, car crashes, bows and arrows, etc. My favorite of the bunch was Wish 143, about a teenage boy with cancer who doesn't want to die a virgin. The Crush pulled off the feat of being adorable despite ending in a shootout. The Confession was well-made but unnecessarily violent. Na Wewe might win; it explores the hot topic of genocide in central Africa. But I'm afraid that the film with the most audience appeal was God of Love, which I found to be depressing rather than touching.


Best Make-Up

• Barney's Version
  
• The Way Back ♥
• The Wolfman ★

I haven't seen these three films. My guess is that the weird prosthetics of Wolfman will win the day.


Best Original Score

• 127 Hours
  
• How to Train Your Dragon
  
• Inception
  
• The King's Speech ★
• The Social Network ♥

Trent Reznor should win for his brilliant Social Network score, but I think this award will go to Alexandre Desplat for his elegant (and excellent) work on The King's Speech. Classical composer John Adams was robbed of a nomination for his massively complex and compelling score for I Am Love.


Best Original Screenplay

• Another Year
  
• The Fighter
• Inception
  
• The Kids Are All Right ♥
• The King's Speech ★

Not an especially impressive group of nominees. The best is The Kids Are All Right. Although it is breezy and lightweight, and the ending was a bit lacking, I loved the dialogue--it seemed so authentic and contemporary. My favorite original screenplay of last year was for the brilliantly brash Please Give. Not nominated, of course.


Best Original Song

• "Coming Home" from Country Strong ♥
• "I See the Light" from Tangled
• "If I Rise" from 127 Hours ★
• "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
  

For me the best original song in any movie of last year was "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from Burlesque. That song won the Golden Globe but was inexplicably left off the nominations list for the Oscar. I sort of liked the 127 Hours song, which was sung by Dido. I've heard that "Coming Home" is pretty good as well.


Best Picture

• 127 Hours
• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech★ ♥
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter's Bone
  

The ranked-choice voting system for Best Picture will help The King's Speech (well-liked by nearly everyone) to defeat The Social Network (adored by many, but too dark for some). I almost gave my heart to the unique and fantastic Winter's Bone, but I keep coming back to how wonderful I felt after seeing King's Speech for the first, second and third times. That's a sign of a great movie.


Best Sound Editing

• Inception ★
• Toy Story 3
• TRON: Legacy
  
• True Grit
  
• Unstoppable ♥

This award usually goes to the film with the most awesome special effects, so I'm picking Inception. I didn't see Unstoppable (or Toy Story 3 or TRON), but I'm guessing that the screeching train brakes were pretty cool.


Best Sound Mixing

• Inception ★
• The King's Speech
• Salt
• The Social Network
  
• True Grit ♥

I really have no idea.


Best Supporting Actor

• Christian Bale, The Fighter
• Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech ★ ♥
• Jeremy Renner, The Town
  
• John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
  
• Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
  

Yes, I'm a bit nuts, but I'm picking the upset for Geoffrey Rush. Partly because I thought Christian Bale overacted a bit, partly because of the delightful perfection of Rush's performance, partly because King's Speech is the better movie overall.


Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams, The Fighter
  
• Hallie Steinfeld, True Grit
• Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
  
• Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom ♥
• Melissa Leo, The Fighter★

This one is really hard to predict. First I thought I would go with Amy Adams for the upset, since I keep hearing how much people admired her performance and how some people thought Melissa Leo was too over-the-top. Then I was going to go with Hallie Steinfeld (even though it's really a lead performance) on the theory that Fighter vote-splitting would keep both Leo and Adams from winning. After that I switched to Helena Bonham Carter--those adoringly supportive glances at her husband are unforgettable--but I remembered that her screen time is quite limited. Ultimately I've decided to go with Melissa Leo, who won the Golden Globe and most of the other precursor awards.

My heart goes to the eerily intense performance of Australian actress Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. My favorite supporting performance of the year (Ann Guilbert in Please Give) was not even nominated.


Best Visual Effects

• Alice in Wonderland ♥
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I
  
• Hereafter
• Inception★
• Iron Man 2
  

Some great nominees this year! I loved Mickey Rourke's electric whips in Iron Man 2, and the tsunami in Hereafter was amazing. But I think Inception will win.


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Enjoy the show!

Oscar Nominations Announced!

Here is how I did with my predictions. Check out the complete list of nominations at http://oscar.go.com/nominations.


Best Actress - 4 out of 5

I missed Michelle Williams for "Blue Valentine." Very glad to see Michelle on the list!


Best Supporting Actress - 4 out of 5

I missed Hailee Steinfeld for "True Grit." Hailee's role is clearly the lead role in this film--her character is the narrator and appears in nearly every scene--but sometimes the Academy puts lead performances in the Supporting categories, especially when the performer is young. I do not approve of this practice. Harumph.


Best Actor - 4 out of 5

Here I missed Javier Bardem for "Biutiful." I haven't seen "Biutiful" yet--it will be released in San Francisco this coming weekend--but I love Javier, so I'm excited to see his performance.


Best Supporting Actor - 4 out of 5 (are you sensing a pattern?)

I'm thrilled to see John Hawkes on the list for his work in "Winter's Bone," though I didn't predict it. If you haven't seen "Winter's Bone," go find it as soon as possible!


Best Director - 4 out of 5

The Coen brothers made the cut for "True Grit," edging out Christopher Nolan for "Inception." I think this is a shame. "True Grit" is good but is perhaps the least interesting film the Coens have ever made, while "Inception" is something totally new and brilliant.


Best Picture - 9 out of 10

Here I'm very happy to see "Winter's Bone" instead of "The Town." While "The Town" is pretty good, "Winter's Bone" is excellent: deeply moving, great atmospherics, fascinating subject matter, and wonderful performances.


As for the other categories, I'm bummed that my favorite movie song of the year, "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from "Burlesque," has been left off the list of nominees for Best Original Song. Glad to see screenplay nominations for both "Winter's Bone" and the brilliant "Another Year."

Oscar Nominations - My Predictions!

We are fast approaching the announcement of the Academy Awards nominations for films from 2010. I'd like to give you my predictions as well as the ones I would nominate if I were in charge.


Best Actress

Predicted nominees:

* Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
* Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
* Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
* Natalie Portman, Black Swan
* Hilary Swank, Conviction

I would nominate:

* Isabelle Huppert, White Material
* Kim Hye-ja, Mother
* Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
* Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
* Leslie Manville, Another Year


Best Supporting Actress

Predicted nominees:

* Amy Adams, The Fighter
* Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
* Mila Kunis, Black Swan
* Melissa Leo, The Fighter
* Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

I would nominate:

* Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
* Ann Guilbert, Please Give
* Charlotte Rampling, Life During Wartime
* Imelda Staunton, Another Year
* Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom


Best Actor

Predicted nominees:

* Jeff Bridges, True Grit
* Robert Duvall, Get Low
* Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
* Colin Firth, The King's Speech
* James Franco, 127 Hours

I would nominate:

* Jim Carrey, I Love You Phillip Morris
* Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
* Colin Firth, The King's Speech
* James Franco, 127 Hours
* James Franco, Howl


Best Supporting Actor

Predicted nominees:

* Christian Bale, The Fighter
* Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
* Jeremy Renner, The Town
* Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
* Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

I would nominate:

* David Andrews, Fair Game
* John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
* Ciaran Hinds, Life During Wartime
* Pete Postlethwaite, The Town
* Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech


Best Director

Predicted nominees:

* Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
* David Fincher, The Social Network
* Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
* Christopher Nolan, Inception
* David O. Russell, The Fighter

I would nominate:

* Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
* Claire Denis, White Material
* David Fincher, The Social Network
* John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole
* Mike Leigh, Another Year


Best Picture

Predicted nominees:

* 127 Hours
* Black Swan
* The Fighter
* Inception
* The Kids Are All Right
* The King's Speech
* The Social Network
* The Town
* Toy Story 3
* True Grit

I would nominate:

* Blue Valentine
* The Kids Are All Right
* The King's Speech
* Life During Wartime
* Mother
* Please Give
* Rabbit Hole
* The Social Network
* White Material
* Winter's Bone


Check out my predictions for other categories, along with a bunch of fun facts and figures, at http://tinyurl.com/jeffsoscarnoms.

The nominations will be announced tomorrow morning (Tuesday, January 25) at 5:38am or so at http://oscars.go.com/.

Academy Awards Predictions

Here are my bold predictions for Sunday night. The star icon denotes my predicted winner; the heart indicates the one I like the most.


Best Actor

• Colin Firth, A Single Man ♥
• George Clooney, Up in the Air
  
• Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart ★
• Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
  
• Morgan Freeman, Invictus

If you haven't seen Colin Firth's bravura performance in A Single Man, by all means get yourself to the theater! Jeff Bridges is also very good in Crazy Heart, though the movie overall isn't that great. Morgan Freeman's portrayal of Nelson Mandela was not especially interesting, and I thought the accent he used was so artificial that it became distracting. I liked the complexity that Jeremy Renner brought to his role in The Hurt Locker. George Clooney shouldn't be getting praised for just being his charming self in yet another movie.


Best Actress

• Carey Mulligan, An Education
• Gaboureh Sidibe, Precious
• Helen Mirren, The Last Station
• Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia ♥
• Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side ★

It's true that Sandra Bullock has come into her own as a dramatic actor in recent years. She was compelling in Crash, and she was the best thing in Infamous. In The Blind Side she established an emotional connection with the audience right away. Her likability may very well net her an Oscar this year, but that would be a grave injustice in a year with stunning performances from newcomers Mulligan and Sidibe as well as an acting master class from Meryl Streep. Meryl should have ten or twelve Oscars by now, and this year there is no question that she gave the best performance by any lead actor or actress.



Best Adapted Screenplay

• District 9
• An Education ♥
• In the Loop
  
• Precious
  
• Up in the Air ★

I appreciated how the Up in the Air script showed sincere compassion for laid-off workers. But this serious topic didn't mesh well with the lightweight sexual and gender-role comedy that take up most of the movie. The writer failed in his effort to make me care about George Clooney's "suffering" in the final act.

The District 9 script pulled off the difficult feat of giving a layered, interesting backstory to a sci-fi action movie. Unlike, say, Avatar, this movie didn't hit the audience over the head with simplistic and obvious parallels to real-world issues. A touch of subletly goes a long way.

The greatness of Precious is due less to its screenplay than to its stellar acting. Still, I'm glad to see the script recognized here.

I find it bizarre that In The Loop got a nomination here, considering that much of the dialogue was ad-libbed. A basic plot outline is not sufficient for screenwriting award consideration. If anything, the actors themselves should get the praise.

In a just world, Nick Hornby would win this award for his beautiful screenplay for An Education.


Best Animated Feature

• Coraline
  
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
  
• The Princess and the Frog
• The Secret of Kells
• Up ★ ♥

Coraline was creepy-cool. Mr. Fox was odd and interesting. I haven't seen Princess or Kells, but I've heard that they were both enjoyable. But Up had the wondrous colors, lovable characters, plenty of thrills, that perfect early sequence about the married couple's journey through life, and the best voice performance (by Ed Asner) since Ellen DeGeneres became a fish.


Best Animated Short

• French Roast
  
• Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
• The Lady and the Reaper
  
• Logorama ♥
• A Matter of Loaf and Death ★

I've seen only Logorama (weird and cool), but I won't bet against the Wallace & Gromit folks winning yet another Oscar, this time for Loaf.


Best Art Direction

• Avatar ★ ♥
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
• Nine
  
• Sherlock Holmes
  
• The Young Victoria
  

I'm puzzled by the nominations for Imaginarium (all that way-cheesy stuff on the other side of the mirror) and Nine (sets that are far too dark and gloomy). It would have been better to nominate Inglourious Basterds and A Serious Man. Victoria did have that lovely castle--I especially liked the staircase--though nothing seemed particularly creative. In a normal year Sherlock Holmes might win this award, but Avatar has shattered conventions with its breathtakingly beautiful forest, awe-inspiring dragons and big blue humanoids.



Best Cinematography

• Avatar
• Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
• The Hurt Locker ★
• Inglourious Basterds
  
• The White Ribbon ♥

Hurt Locker has earned high praise for its camera work, but I would argue that it was the editing more than the cinematography that made this movie so impactful. I think the award should go to The White Ribbon, where the use of light and dark was so important in deepening our appreciation of the characters and events. Unclear why Avatar is nominated here when so much of the movie is CGI.


Best Costume Design

• Bright Star
  
• Coco Before Chanel
  
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus ♥
• Nine
• The Young Victoria ★

Costuming and make-up were perhaps the greatest strengths of Imaginarium. But Oscar voters can't resist royal gowns, so Victoria will win. I wouldn't be unhappy with an upset win for Coco Before Chanel, though fashion isn't the main focus of the film; it's more about Chanel's struggles to navigate her difficult childhood and young adulthood. Nine's costumes were dull, with the exception of Fergie's seductive beachwear in the prostitution scene.


Best Director

• James Cameron, Avatar
• Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
  
• Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker★
• Lee Daniels, Precious ♥
• Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
  

I'm so tempted to give my heart to Quentin Tarantino for directing such an audacious movie, but his screenplay is a greater achievement than his direction. Instead I am going with Lee Daniels, who drew such amazing performances from his cast. Even the lesser players in Precious (Mariah Carey, Sherri Shepherd, Lenny Kravitz) gave surprisingly great performances, and I suspect that this is largely due to the director's efforts. The Hurt Locker is also a tremendous directorial achievement, so I won't be upset if Kathryn Bigelow wins, as is expected by most Oscar watchers. I will, however, bellow in outrage if first-rate blowhard James Cameron wins.


Best Documentary Feature

• Burma VJ
  
• The Cove ★
• Food, Inc.
• The Most Dangerous Man in America ♥
• Which Way Home

Unfortunately I haven't seen any of the nominated films, but I've heard that The Cove is great. But I'm giving my heart to the Daniel Ellsberg film since I tend to love political documentaries.

Best Documentary Short

• China's Unnatural Disaster★
• The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
• The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
• Music by Prudence ♥
• Rabbit a la Berlin
  

No idea. Wild guess. Also I like the name Prudence.


Best Film Editing

• Avatar
  
• District 9
• The Hurt Locker★ ♥
• Inglourious Basterds
  
• Precious

No contest. Hurt Locker rules this category.


Best Foreign Language Film

• Ajami
  
• The Milk of Sorrow
• Un Prophete
  
• El Secreto de Sus Ojos
• The White Ribbon★ ♥

I've seen only The White Ribbon. I have heard buzz that El Secreto or Un Prophete may pull off an upset, but I'm still going with the Michael Haneke masterpiece.


Best Live-Action Short

• The Door
  
• Instead of Abracadabra
  
• Kavi ♥
• Miracle Fish ★
• The New Tenants

Again this year, a depressing quintet of short films. I saw the whole bunch in one sitting a couple of weeks ago, and I nearly slit my wrists. I have a feeling that the school shooting film Miracle Fish will win, but the one that made me cry was Kavi, about a boy enslaved along with his parents in present-day India.


Best Make-Up

• Il Divo
• Star Trek ★
• The Young Victoria ♥

This is the one category where sci-fi sometimes wins, which is why I'm predicting a victory for Star Trek and its Klingons or whatever they were. I really wanted to see Il Divo, but its run in theaters was far too brief; I heard it was fantastic. My heart goes to Victoria primarily because of how they made up Jim Broadbent as the doddering old monarch.


Best Original Score

• Avatar
  
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
  
• The Hurt Locker
• Sherlock Holmes
• Up ★ ♥

My two favorites score this year (the evocative, atmospheric, mostly vocal music of Bright Star and Marvin Hamlisch's jaunty, cornball music for The Informant!) didn't get nominations. I'll go with the perfectly charming music of Up.


Best Original Screenplay

• The Hurt Locker
  
• Inglourious Basterds ★ ♥
• The Messenger
  
• A Serious Man
• Up
  

I soooo want to give my heart to the Coen brothers for the hilarious and frustratingly inconclusive screenplay to A Serious Man, one of the most bizarre and fascinating movies to come along in a while. But there's no denying that our most thrilling screenwriter (Tarantino) gave us his career-best work this year with the Basterds screenplay.


Best Original Song

• "Almost There" from The Princess and the Frog
• "Down in New Orleans" from The Princess and the Frog
• "Loin de Paname" from Paris 36
• "Take It All" from Nine
• "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart ★ ♥

I ended up skipping Paris 36 after reading scathing reviews, even though it was theorectically a movie I would have loved (ambitious young folks put on a musical production against all odds). So I can't comment on "Loin de Paname," or the two Randy Newman entries from Princess . I do know that the only effective number in Nine was Fergie's fabulous "Be Italian," and I don't remember "Take It All"--not a good sign. So I'm going with the great theme from Crazy Heart.


Best Picture

• Avatar
  
• The Blind Side
  
• District 9
• An Education
  
• The Hurt Locker★
• Inglourious Basterds
  
• Precious ♥
• A Serious Man
  
• Up
  
• Up in the Air
  

First of all, I have to mention my disappointment with the nominee list. I would have dumped Blind Side, Up in the Air and District 9 in favor of A Single Man, The Messenger and Where the Wild Things Are.

The Academy is using a new ranked-choice voting system this year for Best Picture that I think will favor movies that are generally well-regarded over those that are adored by some but disliked by others. Since Avatar has two detractors for every three disciples, it might win in the first round of counting, but I think it will eventually fall off. Ditto for Basterds. The Hurt Locker is pretty much universally admired, so I think it will win.

My heart is torn in three pieces (Education, Precious, Serious). But when I force myself to choose, I have to go with the one that shook me hardest and stayed with me longest: Precious.


Best Sound Editing

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker ★ ♥
• Inglourious Basterds
  
• Star Trek
  
• Up
  

I'm told that this category is for the sound in special-effects sequences, as opposed to general sound quality throughout the movie. In that case, I'm inclined to pick The Hurt Locker. But I really have no idea.


Best Sound Mixing

• Avatar ★
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds ♥
• Star Trek
  
• Transformers 2
  

The buzz is that Transformers might actually win this one, but I can't bring myself to give a star to what Roger Ebert called the worst movie of all time.


Best Supporting Actor

• Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds ★ ♥
• Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
  
• Matt Damon, Invictus
  
• Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
  
• Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
  

I would love to vote for Woody Harrelson, so totally awesome in The Messenger. But Christoph Waltz will be remembered and admired forever for his performance in Basterds.

P.S. Why is Matt Damon nominated? He barely had any lines in Invictus. Why not Paul Giamatti, so fierce in The Last Station, or Alfred Molina, note-perfect in An Education?


Best Supporting Actress

• Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
  
• Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
  
• Mo'Nique, Precious★ ♥
  
• Penelope Cruz, Nine
• Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
  

If you haven't seen Mo'Nique in Precious, GO! NOW! So brave, so intense, so revelatory, so unique, so so great!

Anna Kendrick was a nice surprise in Up in the Air, acting circles around George Clooney despite being less than half his age. But the rest of this list drives me batty. What did Vera Farmiga do that merited any recognition--show off her lovely legs and juicy lips? I didn't buy Maggie Gyllenhaal's sincerity for one second in Crazy Heart. And my dear Penelope...I love you madly, but your performance in Nine represents a career low. How in the world did the Academy get this category so horribly wrong? Where is Samantha Morton, mystifying and moving in The Messenger? How about Julianne Moore adding a whole new perspective to A Single Man without distracting from the central plotline and tone? Her make-up table scene alone is worth a nomination. And then there's the delightful Marion Cotillard, by far the best thing in Public Enemies. Cotillard not to your taste? Take Rosamund Pike or Olivia Williams, both so wonderfully complex and interesting in An Education. If you must nominate one of the Nine ladies, why not Judi Dench, who brought much-needed levity and wit to the film? Supporting Actress is often my favorite Oscar category. I'm really upset when the voters mess it up like this.


Best Visual Effects

• Avatar★ ♥
• District 9
  
• Star Trek

No contest.

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Enjoy the show, folks!

Oscar Nominations Announced!

Yes, I woke up at 5:38 am to watch Anne Hathaway read the nominations. I'm generally pleased. In particular I'm excited that my two favorite films this year, Precious and An Education, received Best Picture nominations.

Disappointments: Samantha Morton not making the list for Supporting Actress; no Best Picture nom for The Messenger; no music nomination for Bright Star; only one nomination for A Single Man (Best Actor, Colin Firth); zip for Where the Wild Things Are and The Road.

Congratulations to openly gay nominee Lee Daniels (Best Director, Precious)! Daniels is also nominated in the Best Picture category for his work as co-producer of Precious.

I did pretty well with my nomination predictions. I went five-for-five in Best Actress, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor; three-for-five in Best Supporting Actress; and nine-for-ten in Best Picture.

I can't wait for Oscar Sunday, which just happens to fall on my birthday this year!