Jeff's Movie Blog: Predicting the Oscar Nominations

After a very long pause, I'm back with my predictions for the Oscar nominations. You can tune in to the E! channel at 5:30 a.m. PST on Tuesday, Jan. 22 (tomorrow) to evaluate my Nostradamity.

Best Picture

I predict:

Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men

There Will Be Blood did very well with the critics, but I think it might be too dark and violent for some Academy voters. I suspect that the more inspiring Diving Bell will grab that fifth spot. The only sure thing on this list is is No Country; any of the others could be bumped out by Blood, Into the Wild, Sweeney Todd, or (if the goddess smiles) I'm Not There.

If I ruled the Academy:

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
I'm Not There
There Will Be Blood

Best Actress

I predict:

Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Laura Linney, The Savages
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

As always, this is my favorite category. I hope and expect that the voters will recognize Laura Linney's stunning work in The Savages instead of the throwaway performance of the great Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age. I adore Cate, but even she could barely keep from giggling through that atrociously trite script.

If I ruled the Academy:

Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Laura Linney, The Savages
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Molly Shannon, Year of the Dog

Best Actor

I predict:

Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl

Viggo Mortensen has plenty of buzz for his balls-out performance in Eastern Promises, but I think he will be a surprise omission here. I'm looking for voters to go with the likable Ryan Gosling, even though he smirked through Lars and was out-classed by his luminous co-star, Emily Mortimer. Denzel Washington (American Gangster) is an Academy favorite and has a slim chance to jump in ahead of Langella, Gosling or Depp. Another potential spoiler is the delectable Emile Hirsch in Into the Wild.

If I ruled the Academy:

Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Gordon Pinsent, Away from Her
Mathieu Amalric, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages

Best Supporting Actress

I predict:

Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement

This is probably a dumb pick, but I think Vanessa Redgrave has a good shot for a surprise nomination here. Her screen time in Atonement is brief, but she is devastating. Ruby Dee may take the fifth spot instead for her lucky grandma in American Gangster. Redgrave's young co-star, Saoirse Ronan, also has a shot.

If I ruled the Academy:

Allison Janney, Juno
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Marcia Gay Harden, The Mist
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement

Best Supporting Actor

I predict:

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

A big show of support for Diving Bell could push Max von Sydow into this group, perhaps ahead of Hoffman. Tommy Lee Jones could sneak in alongside Bardem for his world-weary sheriff in No Country.

If I ruled the Academy:

Ahmad Khan Mahmizada, The Kite Runner
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Bosco, The Savages
Vincent Cassel, Eastern Promises

Best Director

I predict:

Joe Wright, Atonement
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Sean Penn, Into the Wild

Tony Gilroy has a good shot for directing the widely-admired Michael Clayton, but I think voters will reward Anderson instead for his unique vision, even if the film itself was too much for them to handle. A wild card here is the veteran director Sidney Lumet, who surprised everyone this year with his excellent crime drama Before the Devil Knows You're Dead.

If I ruled the Academy:

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Robert Rodriguez and Quentin Tarantino, Grindhouse
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Todd Haynes, I'm Not There

Best Original Screenplay

I predict:

Brad Bird and Jan Pinkava, Ratatouille
Diablo Cody, Juno
Kelly Masterson, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Nancy Oliver has a shot for her clever-but-corny Lars and the Real Girl. I will be extremely upset if the Academy fails to recognize the brave, pitch-perfect work of Tamara Jenkins this year.

If I ruled the Academy:

Diablo Cody, Juno
Mike White, Year of the Dog
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Todd Haynes and Owen Moverman, I'm Not There
Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola and Jason Schwartzman, The Darjeeling Limited

Best Adapted Screenplay

I predict:

Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild

Aaron Sorkin has a shot for the fast-paced script of Charlie Wilson's War, but I think the voters will dismiss him as a lowly TV writer, albeit one of the best. Sarah Polley could nose her way into this category for the spare, delicate script of Away from Her.

If I ruled the Academy: