Predictions for the Academy Awards

Here are my brash predictions for Sunday night. The star icon denotes my predicted winner; the heart indicates the one I like the most.


Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
  
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn ♥
• Rooney Mara, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
• Viola Davis, The Help★

It's a tight race between Streep and Davis. I'm giving the edge to Davis since her movie received the better overall reception. Streep's performance is a tremendous achievement, but this year my heart goes to Michelle Williams for her beautiful, subtle work as Marilyn Monroe. Should have been nominated: Anna Paquin, startling as a (psychopathic?) student who witnesses a fatal bus accident in Margaret, and Charlize Theron for her daring turn as an emotionally stunted, morally bankrupt, and deeply depressed author of tween fiction in Young Adult. I also loved Adepero Oduye, believable and inspiring in the lead role of Pariah.


Best Actor

• Brad Pitt, Moneyball ♥
• Demian Bichir, A Better Life
  
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
  
• George Clooney, The Descendants
  
• Jean Dujardin, The Artist★

Dujardin will win, I'm afraid. I'm basing this prediction in part on the bizarre Best Actor victory of fellow wackadoo foreigner Roberto Benigni for 1997's Life is Beautiful. Benigni's win over Ian McKellen (Gods and Monsters) stands among the greatest injustices in the history of the Oscars. Dujardin's triumph will mean that the Academy will have missed the chance to recognize career-best performances from America's two biggest movie stars, George Clooney and Brad Pitt. Clooney has never been more vulnerable and relatable than in the wonderful Descendants. Pitt pulled off the amazing feat of bringing heart, complexity, and beauty to a movie about statistics. Should have been nominated: Matt Damon, adorable as the optimistic widower in the charming We Built A Zoo. What a fantastic year for American actors! We easily could have filled out this entire category with Americans like Woody Harrelson in Rampart, Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar, and Michael Shannon in Take Shelter.


Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Descendants ★ ♥
• Hugo
• The Ides of March
• Moneyball
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
  

Moneyball's script is very strong, but Alexander Payne has achieved near-perfection with his Descendants screenplay.


Best Director

• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
  
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo
  
• Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist ★
• Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life ♥
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
  

Both Hazanavicius and Scorsese took viewers back into the glorious history of cinema. Scorsese is a potential spoiler, but Hugo is harmed by its "kids' movie" tag, so I think Hazanavicius will win here. As for my heart, there's no question: Terrence Malick is so far and above all other contenders in terms of creativity and ambition. Tree of Life isn't perfect (I could have done without all the whispering), but it's the most challenging and exhilarating film I can remember. Should have been nominated: Lars von Trier, Melancholia; Dee Rees, Pariah.


Best Original Screenplay

• The Artist
• Bridesmaids
• Margin Call
  
• Midnight in Paris ★
• A Separation ♥

This category is the Academy's best chance to honor Woody Allen. I would be much happier with a win for A Separation. Writer/director Asghar Farhadi somehow manages to ensure that each character's viewpoint seems valid, even though the different viewpoints are contradictory. Addressing the dichotomies of wealthy vs. poor, secular vs. religious, well-educated vs. less educated, and more, Farhadi's screenplay is a masterpiece of complex storytelling. Should have been nominated: Dee Rees for Pariah.


Best Picture

• The Artist ★
• The Descendants ♥
• Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
• The Help
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• Moneyball
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

An upset win by The Descendants is possible, but I think The Artist's combination of novelty, nostalgia, and cute puppy bring it the top award. I greatly admired The Tree of Life, which features an amazing supporting performance by Brad Pitt, but my heart has to go to the The Descendants, the only movie that I was compelled to watch three times in the theater this year. Should have been nominated: My Week With Marilyn, Melancholia, Pariah, A Separation.


Best Supporting Actor

• Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn ♥
• Jonah Hill – Moneyball
• Nick Nolte – Warrior
• Christopher Plummer - Beginners ★
• Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

This may be heresy, but I wasn't crazy about Plummer's performance in Beginners. Maybe because I could never wrap my brain around why a handsome and stylish gay man would choose a boyfriend (Goran Viscnic) with the ugliest hair imaginable. Admittedly Plummer was the best thing in an otherwise dull exploration of heterosexual male romantic angst. As for my heart, it's with Kenneth Branagh, delightfully obnoxious as the upright British cinematic icon who is at first dismissive of, then infuriated by, then grudgingly admiring and perhaps even jealous of, the American blond bombshell played by Michelle Williams. Should have been nominated: Robert Forster, The Descendants.


Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist ♥
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
  
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
  
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Octavia Spencer, The Help★

Berenice Bejo is the best thing in The Artist, with the possible exception of the dog. But there is no way that this award will go to anyone but Octavia Spencer, who has been so stunningly beautiful on the various red carpets of this award season. Should have been nominated: Shailene Woodley for The Descendants, far and away my favorite supporting performance of the year. Honorable mention to the amazing Jeannie Berlin in Margaret, and to Kim Wayans, a wonderful surprise as the conflicted mother in Pariah.


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Enjoy the show!