Predicting Tomorrow's Oscars!

I'm ready for the Oscars!  Here are my bold predictions, marked with gold stars.  The red hearts are for the ones I liked the most.

Best Picture

• American Hustle
• Captain Phillips ♥
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity
• Her
• Nebraska
• Philomena
• 12 Years A Slave ★
• The Wolf of Wall Street

The Academy almost never rewards science-fiction movies in this category, so I think Gravity will fall short here, though it will win several other categories.  I liked all of the nominated films except American Hustle (hated it) and Her (admired its creativity, but ultimately it left me cold).  Captain Phillips is essentially a perfect movie, in my opinion.  Should have been nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis and Fruitvale Station.

Best Director

• Alexander Payne, Nebraska
• Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity ★
• David O. Russell, American Hustle
• Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
• Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave ♥ 

Steve McQueen, a British director, accomplished something that no American director has been able to do:  he created a multi-layered, compelling exploration of the realities of American slavery. Cuaron should be disqualified for forcing Sandra Bullock to wear those panties. Should have been nominated: Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips, Ryan Coogler for Fruitvale Station.

Best Actress

• Amy Adams, American Hustle
• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine ★
• Judi Dench, Philomena ♥
• Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
• Sandra Bullock, Gravity

I've been going back and forth between The Great Cate and Dame Judi in choosing my favorite performance.  Cate is so amazing--a master of her craft--and she elevates Blue Jasmine into a far better movie than it would have been with any other actress.  But Judi is perfection in Philomena.


Best Actor

• Bruce Dern, Nebraska
• Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave 
• Christian Bale, American Hustle 
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
• Matthew McConaghey, Dallas Buyers Club ★ ♥

I've seen Dallas twice, and McConaghey is really great!  Totally believable and relatable.  Great work.  Should have been nominated: Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips.

Best Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
• Julia Roberts, August: Osage County ♥
• June Squibb, Nebraska
• Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave ★
• Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

I had to stretch to find anybody from this list worthy of a heart.  Probably Sally Hawkins gave the best performance, but I found her character to be unrealistic (which was true of all of the San Francisco "locals" in Blue Jasmine).  So I settled on Julia just for her delivery of the line, "Eat your fish."  My favorite non-nominee: Allison Janney in The Way Way Back.  Also loved Adepero Oduye in 12 Years A Slave.

 

Best Supporting Actor

• Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
• Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
• Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club ★
• Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street ♥
• Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave

Didn't love any of the nominees.  My favorite supporting performance of the year was by James Franco in Spring Breakers.


Best Adapted Screenplay

• Before Midnight
• Captain Phillips ♥
• Philomena
• 12 Years A Slave ★
• The Wolf of Wall Street  

Before Midnight had one good scene.  The rest was yucky.  Some people have talked up the Philomena screenplay; I felt that the script was unbalanced and not fair to the nuns.  12 Years has the sort of historical seriousness that makes it feel important, and some of the scenes are amazing, so I think this will be the winner.  Wolf is snappy and interesting but overlong.  Captain Phillips is obviously my favorite.

 

 

Best Original Screenplay

• American Hustle
• Blue Jasmine 
• Dallas Buyers Club ♥
• Her ★
• Nebraska

Not a great group of nominees.  Her is likely to win because it is "creative"; that's true, but the lead character is unlikable, and there are aspects of the story that don't make sense (e.g. how is he able to afford that fancy apartment on the salary of a letter writer?).  Dallas at least creates some genuine emotional moments.  Nebraska condescends to its characters.  Blue Jasmine would have been better if the setting was changed from San Francisco to basically anywhere on the East Coast.  American Hustle has the laziest script in history.   Should have been nominated: Fruitvale Station, Inside Llewyn Davis.

Best Visual Effects

• Gravity ★ ♥
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Iron Man 3
• The Lone Ranger
• Star Trek Into Darkness

 

Best Production Design

• American Hustle
• Gravity
• The Great Gatsby ★
• Her
• 12 Years A  Slave ♥

 

Best Original Score

• The Book Thief
• Gravity ★ ♥
• Her
• Philomena
• Saving Mr. Banks   

 

Best Original Song

• "Happy" from Despicable Me 2 ♥
• "Let It Go" from Frozen ★
• "The Moon Song" from Her
• "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom   

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Dallas Buyers Club ★
• Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa ♥
• The Lone Ranger  

 

Best Costume Design

• American Hustle
• The Grandmaster
• The Great Gatsby ★
• The Invisible Woman
• 12 Years A Slave ♥ 

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should have been nominated.

 

 

Best Cinematography

• The Grandmaster
• Gravity ★
• Inside Llewyn Davis ♥
• Nebraska
• Prisoners 

 

Best Film Editing

• American Hustle
• Captain Phillips ♥
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity ★
• 12 Years A Slave

 

Best Sound Editing

• All is Lost
• Captain Phillips ♥
• Gravity ★
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Lone Survivor

 

Best Sound Mixing

• Captain Phillips
• Gravity ★ ♥
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Lone Survivor 

 

Best Foreign Language Film

• The Broken Circle Breakdown
• The Great Beauty ★
• The Hunt ♥
• The Missing Picture
• Omar 

 

Best Animated Feature

• The Croods
• Despicable Me 2
• Ernest & Celestine
• Frozen ★ ♥
• The Wind Rises 

 

Best Animated Short

• Feral
• Get A Horse!★
• Mr. Hublot ♥
• Possession
• Room on the Broom 

 

Best Live-Action Short

• Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
• Helium
• Just Before Losing Everything
• That Wasn't Me ★ ♥
• The Voorman Problem

 

Best Documentary Short

• Cave Digger
• Facing Fear
• Karama Has No Walls
• The Lady in Number 6 ★
• Prison Terminal ♥

 

Best Documentary Feature

• The Act of Killing ★ ♥
• Cutie and the Boxer
• Dirty Wars
• The Square
• 20 Feet From Stardom 

I hope you all enjoy the show!  I'm looking forward to Bette Midler's performance in particular.

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Oscar Nominations - Predictions & Wish Lists

 

Academy Awards nominations will be announced early tomorrow morning!  I'd like to give you my predictions as well as the ones I would nominate if I were in charge.

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted nominees:

• Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club
• Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
• June Squibb, Nebraska
• Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
• Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

I would nominate:

• Adepero Oduye, 12 Years A Slave
• Allison Janney, The Way, Way Back
• Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
• Scarlett Johannson, Don Jon
• Sarah Paulson, 12 Years A Slave

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted nominees:

• Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
• Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
• James Gandolfini, Enough Said
• Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
• Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave

I would nominate:

• Colin Farrell, Saving Mr. Banks
• Geoffrey Rush, The Book Thief
• James Franco, Spring Breakers
• Michael McConaghey, Mud
• Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back  
  
  
  

Best Picture
 
Predicted nominees:

• American Hustle
• Captain Phillips
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity
• Her
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Nebraska
• Philomena
• 12 Years A Slave
• The Wolf of Wall Street   

I would nominate:

• All Is Lost
• Captain Phillips
• Fruitvale Station
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Philomena
• Saving Mr. Banks
• Spring Breakers
• 12 Years A Slave
• Wadjda
• The Way, Way Back

Best Director
 
Predicted nominees:

• Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
• David O. Russell, American Hustle
• Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street   
• Spike Jonze, Her
• Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave

I would nominate:

• Ethan and Joel Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
• Harmony Korine, Spring Breakers
• Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
• Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
• Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave

Best Actress

Predicted nominees:

• Amy Adams, American Hustle
• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
• Judi Dench, Philomena
• Sandra Bullock, Gravity

I would nominate:

• Brie Larson, Short Term 12
• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
• Judi Dench, Philomena
• Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now

Best Actor

Predicted nominees:

• Bruce Dern, Nebraska
• Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
• Matthew McConaghey, Dallas Buyers Club
• Robert Redford, All Is Lost
• Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

I would nominate:

• Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
• Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
• Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
• Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond the Pines
• Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips