Academy Awards Predictions

Here are my bold predictions for Sunday night. The star icon denotes my predicted winner; the heart indicates the one I like the most.


Best Actor

• Colin Firth, A Single Man ♥
• George Clooney, Up in the Air
  
• Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart ★
• Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
  
• Morgan Freeman, Invictus

If you haven't seen Colin Firth's bravura performance in A Single Man, by all means get yourself to the theater! Jeff Bridges is also very good in Crazy Heart, though the movie overall isn't that great. Morgan Freeman's portrayal of Nelson Mandela was not especially interesting, and I thought the accent he used was so artificial that it became distracting. I liked the complexity that Jeremy Renner brought to his role in The Hurt Locker. George Clooney shouldn't be getting praised for just being his charming self in yet another movie.


Best Actress

• Carey Mulligan, An Education
• Gaboureh Sidibe, Precious
• Helen Mirren, The Last Station
• Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia ♥
• Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side ★

It's true that Sandra Bullock has come into her own as a dramatic actor in recent years. She was compelling in Crash, and she was the best thing in Infamous. In The Blind Side she established an emotional connection with the audience right away. Her likability may very well net her an Oscar this year, but that would be a grave injustice in a year with stunning performances from newcomers Mulligan and Sidibe as well as an acting master class from Meryl Streep. Meryl should have ten or twelve Oscars by now, and this year there is no question that she gave the best performance by any lead actor or actress.



Best Adapted Screenplay

• District 9
• An Education ♥
• In the Loop
  
• Precious
  
• Up in the Air ★

I appreciated how the Up in the Air script showed sincere compassion for laid-off workers. But this serious topic didn't mesh well with the lightweight sexual and gender-role comedy that take up most of the movie. The writer failed in his effort to make me care about George Clooney's "suffering" in the final act.

The District 9 script pulled off the difficult feat of giving a layered, interesting backstory to a sci-fi action movie. Unlike, say, Avatar, this movie didn't hit the audience over the head with simplistic and obvious parallels to real-world issues. A touch of subletly goes a long way.

The greatness of Precious is due less to its screenplay than to its stellar acting. Still, I'm glad to see the script recognized here.

I find it bizarre that In The Loop got a nomination here, considering that much of the dialogue was ad-libbed. A basic plot outline is not sufficient for screenwriting award consideration. If anything, the actors themselves should get the praise.

In a just world, Nick Hornby would win this award for his beautiful screenplay for An Education.


Best Animated Feature

• Coraline
  
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
  
• The Princess and the Frog
• The Secret of Kells
• Up ★ ♥

Coraline was creepy-cool. Mr. Fox was odd and interesting. I haven't seen Princess or Kells, but I've heard that they were both enjoyable. But Up had the wondrous colors, lovable characters, plenty of thrills, that perfect early sequence about the married couple's journey through life, and the best voice performance (by Ed Asner) since Ellen DeGeneres became a fish.


Best Animated Short

• French Roast
  
• Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
• The Lady and the Reaper
  
• Logorama ♥
• A Matter of Loaf and Death ★

I've seen only Logorama (weird and cool), but I won't bet against the Wallace & Gromit folks winning yet another Oscar, this time for Loaf.


Best Art Direction

• Avatar ★ ♥
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
• Nine
  
• Sherlock Holmes
  
• The Young Victoria
  

I'm puzzled by the nominations for Imaginarium (all that way-cheesy stuff on the other side of the mirror) and Nine (sets that are far too dark and gloomy). It would have been better to nominate Inglourious Basterds and A Serious Man. Victoria did have that lovely castle--I especially liked the staircase--though nothing seemed particularly creative. In a normal year Sherlock Holmes might win this award, but Avatar has shattered conventions with its breathtakingly beautiful forest, awe-inspiring dragons and big blue humanoids.



Best Cinematography

• Avatar
• Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
• The Hurt Locker ★
• Inglourious Basterds
  
• The White Ribbon ♥

Hurt Locker has earned high praise for its camera work, but I would argue that it was the editing more than the cinematography that made this movie so impactful. I think the award should go to The White Ribbon, where the use of light and dark was so important in deepening our appreciation of the characters and events. Unclear why Avatar is nominated here when so much of the movie is CGI.


Best Costume Design

• Bright Star
  
• Coco Before Chanel
  
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus ♥
• Nine
• The Young Victoria ★

Costuming and make-up were perhaps the greatest strengths of Imaginarium. But Oscar voters can't resist royal gowns, so Victoria will win. I wouldn't be unhappy with an upset win for Coco Before Chanel, though fashion isn't the main focus of the film; it's more about Chanel's struggles to navigate her difficult childhood and young adulthood. Nine's costumes were dull, with the exception of Fergie's seductive beachwear in the prostitution scene.


Best Director

• James Cameron, Avatar
• Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
  
• Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker★
• Lee Daniels, Precious ♥
• Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
  

I'm so tempted to give my heart to Quentin Tarantino for directing such an audacious movie, but his screenplay is a greater achievement than his direction. Instead I am going with Lee Daniels, who drew such amazing performances from his cast. Even the lesser players in Precious (Mariah Carey, Sherri Shepherd, Lenny Kravitz) gave surprisingly great performances, and I suspect that this is largely due to the director's efforts. The Hurt Locker is also a tremendous directorial achievement, so I won't be upset if Kathryn Bigelow wins, as is expected by most Oscar watchers. I will, however, bellow in outrage if first-rate blowhard James Cameron wins.


Best Documentary Feature

• Burma VJ
  
• The Cove ★
• Food, Inc.
• The Most Dangerous Man in America ♥
• Which Way Home

Unfortunately I haven't seen any of the nominated films, but I've heard that The Cove is great. But I'm giving my heart to the Daniel Ellsberg film since I tend to love political documentaries.

Best Documentary Short

• China's Unnatural Disaster★
• The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
• The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
• Music by Prudence ♥
• Rabbit a la Berlin
  

No idea. Wild guess. Also I like the name Prudence.


Best Film Editing

• Avatar
  
• District 9
• The Hurt Locker★ ♥
• Inglourious Basterds
  
• Precious

No contest. Hurt Locker rules this category.


Best Foreign Language Film

• Ajami
  
• The Milk of Sorrow
• Un Prophete
  
• El Secreto de Sus Ojos
• The White Ribbon★ ♥

I've seen only The White Ribbon. I have heard buzz that El Secreto or Un Prophete may pull off an upset, but I'm still going with the Michael Haneke masterpiece.


Best Live-Action Short

• The Door
  
• Instead of Abracadabra
  
• Kavi ♥
• Miracle Fish ★
• The New Tenants

Again this year, a depressing quintet of short films. I saw the whole bunch in one sitting a couple of weeks ago, and I nearly slit my wrists. I have a feeling that the school shooting film Miracle Fish will win, but the one that made me cry was Kavi, about a boy enslaved along with his parents in present-day India.


Best Make-Up

• Il Divo
• Star Trek ★
• The Young Victoria ♥

This is the one category where sci-fi sometimes wins, which is why I'm predicting a victory for Star Trek and its Klingons or whatever they were. I really wanted to see Il Divo, but its run in theaters was far too brief; I heard it was fantastic. My heart goes to Victoria primarily because of how they made up Jim Broadbent as the doddering old monarch.


Best Original Score

• Avatar
  
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
  
• The Hurt Locker
• Sherlock Holmes
• Up ★ ♥

My two favorites score this year (the evocative, atmospheric, mostly vocal music of Bright Star and Marvin Hamlisch's jaunty, cornball music for The Informant!) didn't get nominations. I'll go with the perfectly charming music of Up.


Best Original Screenplay

• The Hurt Locker
  
• Inglourious Basterds ★ ♥
• The Messenger
  
• A Serious Man
• Up
  

I soooo want to give my heart to the Coen brothers for the hilarious and frustratingly inconclusive screenplay to A Serious Man, one of the most bizarre and fascinating movies to come along in a while. But there's no denying that our most thrilling screenwriter (Tarantino) gave us his career-best work this year with the Basterds screenplay.


Best Original Song

• "Almost There" from The Princess and the Frog
• "Down in New Orleans" from The Princess and the Frog
• "Loin de Paname" from Paris 36
• "Take It All" from Nine
• "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart ★ ♥

I ended up skipping Paris 36 after reading scathing reviews, even though it was theorectically a movie I would have loved (ambitious young folks put on a musical production against all odds). So I can't comment on "Loin de Paname," or the two Randy Newman entries from Princess . I do know that the only effective number in Nine was Fergie's fabulous "Be Italian," and I don't remember "Take It All"--not a good sign. So I'm going with the great theme from Crazy Heart.


Best Picture

• Avatar
  
• The Blind Side
  
• District 9
• An Education
  
• The Hurt Locker★
• Inglourious Basterds
  
• Precious ♥
• A Serious Man
  
• Up
  
• Up in the Air
  

First of all, I have to mention my disappointment with the nominee list. I would have dumped Blind Side, Up in the Air and District 9 in favor of A Single Man, The Messenger and Where the Wild Things Are.

The Academy is using a new ranked-choice voting system this year for Best Picture that I think will favor movies that are generally well-regarded over those that are adored by some but disliked by others. Since Avatar has two detractors for every three disciples, it might win in the first round of counting, but I think it will eventually fall off. Ditto for Basterds. The Hurt Locker is pretty much universally admired, so I think it will win.

My heart is torn in three pieces (Education, Precious, Serious). But when I force myself to choose, I have to go with the one that shook me hardest and stayed with me longest: Precious.


Best Sound Editing

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker ★ ♥
• Inglourious Basterds
  
• Star Trek
  
• Up
  

I'm told that this category is for the sound in special-effects sequences, as opposed to general sound quality throughout the movie. In that case, I'm inclined to pick The Hurt Locker. But I really have no idea.


Best Sound Mixing

• Avatar ★
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds ♥
• Star Trek
  
• Transformers 2
  

The buzz is that Transformers might actually win this one, but I can't bring myself to give a star to what Roger Ebert called the worst movie of all time.


Best Supporting Actor

• Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds ★ ♥
• Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
  
• Matt Damon, Invictus
  
• Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
  
• Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
  

I would love to vote for Woody Harrelson, so totally awesome in The Messenger. But Christoph Waltz will be remembered and admired forever for his performance in Basterds.

P.S. Why is Matt Damon nominated? He barely had any lines in Invictus. Why not Paul Giamatti, so fierce in The Last Station, or Alfred Molina, note-perfect in An Education?


Best Supporting Actress

• Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
  
• Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
  
• Mo'Nique, Precious★ ♥
  
• Penelope Cruz, Nine
• Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
  

If you haven't seen Mo'Nique in Precious, GO! NOW! So brave, so intense, so revelatory, so unique, so so great!

Anna Kendrick was a nice surprise in Up in the Air, acting circles around George Clooney despite being less than half his age. But the rest of this list drives me batty. What did Vera Farmiga do that merited any recognition--show off her lovely legs and juicy lips? I didn't buy Maggie Gyllenhaal's sincerity for one second in Crazy Heart. And my dear Penelope...I love you madly, but your performance in Nine represents a career low. How in the world did the Academy get this category so horribly wrong? Where is Samantha Morton, mystifying and moving in The Messenger? How about Julianne Moore adding a whole new perspective to A Single Man without distracting from the central plotline and tone? Her make-up table scene alone is worth a nomination. And then there's the delightful Marion Cotillard, by far the best thing in Public Enemies. Cotillard not to your taste? Take Rosamund Pike or Olivia Williams, both so wonderfully complex and interesting in An Education. If you must nominate one of the Nine ladies, why not Judi Dench, who brought much-needed levity and wit to the film? Supporting Actress is often my favorite Oscar category. I'm really upset when the voters mess it up like this.


Best Visual Effects

• Avatar★ ♥
• District 9
  
• Star Trek

No contest.

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Enjoy the show, folks!