Here are my bold predictions for Sunday night. The star icon denotes my predicted winner; the heart indicates the one I like the most.
Best Actor- Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
- Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
- Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
- Sean Penn, The Dark Knight ★ ♥
All great performances here, though I would put Brad Pitt at the bottom of the list. While he did a fine job, the real star of
Benjamin Button was the make-up department. Richard Jenkins gave the most natural, relatable performance of the year in the lovely film
The Visitor. Although I had trouble with the believability of the script of
Frost/Nixon, and the film as a whole seemed lightweight, I loved Frank Langella's striking performance as Richard Nixon. Mickey Rourke put his body through hell in
The Wrestler, and he certainly earned the awards that he has already received. But I think the Academy's snob factor will work against him and for Sean Penn, whom they have already anointed as a Great Actor. That's fine with me, as I think Sean Penn gave the best performance of his career, and the best by any actor this year, in
Milk.
Best Actress- Meryl Streep, Doubt ♥
- Melissa Leo, Frozen River
- Kate Winslet, The Reader ★
- Angelina Jolie, Changeling
- Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Here is the first acting category in which I expect the Academy to get it wrong. They seem determined to give Kate Winslet the award, partly out of the sense that she has earned one after five previous nominations, partly because voters loved her work in
Revolutionary Road (I think that was the better of her two lead performances this year), and partly because Harvey Weinstein is campaigning for her like crazy. While Kate was strong in
The Reader, bringing complexity and even warmth to an unlikable character, the movie as a whole left me cold, so I'm not feeling inclined to reward her with the Oscar. If you read my earlier post you know how I feel about Anne Hathaway in
Rachel Getting Married (blecchh). Angelina Jolie was gorgeous in
Changeling, but I didn't find her convincing in the mother role; in any case the gorgeous art direction and set decoration were the real highlights of
Changeling. I was enthralled by Melissa Leo, so heartbreakingly believable as a mother struggling to stay true to her core values in the face of overpowering economic pressures. I hope that more people take the time to check out
Frozen River, a fantastic example of great independent filmmaking. Meryl Streep took several chances in her role as a nun in
Doubt, choosing a tricky accent and an abrupt conversational style that lacked elegance but certainly benefited the film. Her otherwise-perfect performance was marred by the disappointing final scene, but that is more the writer-director's fault than Meryl's.
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ♥
- Doubt
- Frost/Nixon
- The Reader
- Slumdog Millionaire ★
Doubt worked incredibly well on the live stage, but I didn't like the changes that John Patrick Shanley made for the movie screenplay.
The Reader's screenplay featured several unbearable sequences, particularly all of the scenes in the law school classroom. I'm looking for
Slumdog to take this award, but I have a slight preference for the elegant script of
Benjamin Button.
Best Animated Feature- Bolt
- Kung Fu Panda
- Wall*E ★ ♥
OK, I admit I didn't make it to
Bolt or
Panda, but I'm still confident that
Wall*E will win. I wasn't crazy about the misanthropic second half of
Wall*E, particularly the implied linkage between being overweight and being lazy and stupid, but the first half was so beautiful, so elegant, so poetic, so totally unique that it makes the movie worthy of all the accolades.
Best Animated Short - La Maison en Petits Cubes
- Lavatory - Lovestory ♥
- Oktapodi
- Presto
- This Way Up ★
I can't resist a lavatory love story....
Best Art Direction- Changeling ♥
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ★
- The Dark Knight
- The Duchess
- Revolutionary Road
I'm guessing that
Benjmain Button will take this award in recognition of its three full hours of scenes all around the world.
The Duchess featured lovely British mansion interiors and exteriors, but nothing we haven't seen before. I admired the art direction of both
The Dark Knight and
Revolutionary Road, but my favorite this year was definitely
Changeling. In fact the art direction was the best thing about that film, in my opinion.
Best Cinematography- Changeling
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ♥
- The Dark Knight
- The Reader
- Slumdog Millionaire ★
Slumdog should win, thanks to its dramatic camera work in such colorful, beautiful locations. My favorite this year was
Benjamin Button, which featured some incredibly beautiful shots--for example, the swimming scene with Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett when they "meet in the middle." I hope that
The Reader doesn't win here; I thought the camera-work was stodgy, heavy-handed and indulgent on many occasions, though the shots of the young men and women on the dock at the lake were gorgeous.
Best Costume Design- Australia
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Duchess ★
- Milk ♥
- Revolutionary Road
Academy voters can't resist the extravagant get-ups that always appear in frothy period pieces like
The Duchess. I would rather that they recognized either
Milk or
Revolutionary Road for thoughtful costuming that lent credibility to the 1970s and 1950s settings, respectively.
Benjamin Button has a shot at the prize as well.
Best Director- Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire★
- David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Gus Van Sant, Milk ♥
- Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
- Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Stephen Daldry is a potential upset winner here. This is his third nomination (after
Billy Elliot and
The Hours), and Harvey Weinstein is on the campaign trail for him. But I think that the Academy will instead recognize first-time nominee Danny Boyle for
Slumdog, a wildly inventive and suspenseful movie like none Hollywood has seen before. Prior winner Ron Howard has no chance this year. I think that both David Fincher and Gus Van Sant will receive plenty of votes, as they are both respected veterans with well-regarded films this year. While Van Sant's unique style was not on display in
Milk as much as in other recent films like
Paranoid Park and
Elephant, I still pick him as my favorite because he was the driving force behind the most important and most emotionally resonant film of the year in
Milk.
Best Documentary Feature- The Betrayal
- Encounters at the End of the World
- The Garden
- Man on Wire ★
- Trouble the Water ♥
Man on Wire received universally glowing reviews and may be the most joyful film of the new century, even as it recounts events from 1974.
Encounters, in contrast, offered a dark vision of nature's harshness in its portrait of Antarctica and the few life forms, human and otherwise, that try to survive there. Made by the widely respected Werner Herzog,
Encounters has a shot at winning, but I think
Man on Wire will take the trophy. I loved both of those films, but my favorite documentary of the year was the heartbreaking
Trouble the Water, with its firsthand accounts of the Hurricane Katrina disaster.
Best Documentary Short - The Conscience of Nhem En
- The Final Inch
- Smile Pinki
- The Witness -- From the Balcony of Room 306 ★ ♥
Best Film Editing- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight ♥
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire★
The Best Picture winner usually carries this category, so my star goes to
Slumdog.
Best Foreign Language Film- The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
- The Class (France) ★
- Departures (Japan)
- Revanche (Austria)
- Waltz with Bashir (Israel) ♥
The two that have been widely released in the U.S.,
The Class and
Waltz with Bashir, are in a tight race for this award. I suspect that the Academy voters will prefer the live-action French film over the creative, devastatingly sad, animated Israeli entry. My favorite foreign language film of the year, the Swedish horror masterpiece
Let the Right One In, wasn't even nominated.
Best Live-Action Short- Auf der Strecke
- Manon on the Asphalt
- New Boy
- The Pig
- Spielzeugland★ ♥
What a depressing group of films! The subject matter, respectively: Man beaten to death on subway; woman killed in car accident; boy taken from home country after father kidnapped in military coup; man faces terminal cancer; Jewish family boards train to Auschwitz. A good rule of thumb at the Oscars is that the Holocaust drama always wins. That's fine with me this year, as I thought
Spielzeugland was the best of a strong group of nominees.
Best Make-Up- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ★ ♥
- The Dark Knight
- Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Angelina Jolie's make-up for
Changeling was my favorite of the year, but since it wasn't nominated, I'll go with the very impressive backward/forward-aging make-up of
Benjamin Button.
Best Original Score- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Defiance
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire ★
- Wall*E ♥
In the past, I've found Thomas Newman's scores to be indulgent and annoying, but his score for
Wall*E was fantastic--and essential to the success of the wordless first half of the movie.
Best Original Screenplay - Frozen River
- Happy-Go-Lucky
- In Bruges
- Milk ★ ♥
- Wall*E
The
Wall*E script is unique and interesting, but I didn't like the second half. I loved the natural, realistic feel of the story of
Frozen River. But
Milk wins.
Best Original Song- "Down to Earth" from Wall*E ♥
- "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire ★
- "O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire
Where is Bruce Springsteen's theme from
The Wrestler?
Best Picture- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk ♥
- The Reader
- Slumdog Millionaire★
The only film with a real chance at upsetting
Slumdog for Best Picture is
Milk. Most Academy votes live in California and experienced the shocking endorsement of anti-gay discrimination by the state's voters last November; their outrage may drive sentiment to reward the film about the history of the movement for gay equality. I would be pleased as punch if that happened. While
The Reader may have a shot in the director category, I don't think it will garner many votes for Best Picture, given that its critical reception was mixed.
Frost/Nixon is perhaps too breezy and happy to win, and
Benjamin Button is highly respected but not loved.
Best Sound Editing- The Dark Knight ★
- Iron Man ♥
- Slumdog Millionaire
- Wall*E
- Wanted
Best Sound Mixing - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight ★ ♥
- Slumdog Millionaire
- Wall*E
- Wanted
Best Supporting Actor- Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight ★ ♥
- Josh Brolin, Milk
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
- Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
- Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Of course Heath Ledger will win, as he should, for his fascinating work as The Joker. Philip Seymour Hoffman was very strong as the accused priest in
Doubt. Josh Brolin totally nailed the role of Dan White in
Milk. I'm less enthused about Michael Shannon's inclusion in this group; his scenes in
Revolutionary Road felt out of place, distracting from the core storyline. And while I adore RDJ, I just can't get past the blackface he employed in
Tropic Thunder. There are so may other Downey performances that have been more deserving of Oscar nominations -- the troubled musician with mommy issues in
Two Girls and a Guy, the unscrupulous TV reporter in
Natural Born Killers, the alienated gay brother in
Home for the Holidays, to name a few -- so why is the Academy honoring him for the forgettable
Thunder?
Best Supporting Actress- Amy Adams, Doubt
- Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
- Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona ★ ♥
- Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Viola Davis, Doubt
I think it would be hilarious if Marisa Tomei were to win. That would make her a two-time Oscar winner, putting her ahead of legends like Judi Dench, Vanessa Redgrave and Susan Sarandon. Having said that, I did enjoy her bold performance as an aging stripper in
The Wrestler. I also appreciated how Taraji P. Henson brought so much warmth to her role as the emotional anchor of the rambling epic
Benjamin Button. While Viola Davis had the flashier role in
Doubt, Amy Adams gave the better performance, full of nuance. Adams will certainly take home an Oscar someday, but this time I give the edge to Penelope Cruz as the wildly passionate and unpredictable artist in
Vicky Cristina Barcelona.
Best Visual Effects - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ♥
- The Dark Knight ★
- Iron Man
